1. How likely is each result?
We start from the betting market, because it already prices in injuries, rest, weather and everything else we'd otherwise have to guess at. We only use the numbers; there's no betting on this site, ever.
- Games with a line posted (usually this week and next) use the moneylines with the bookmaker's cut removed, or the point spread if that's all there is.
- Games further out use a power rating for each team, fit to every spread posted over the last couple of months with recent weeks counting more. Rating gap plus home field gives a predicted spread, and the spread gives a win probability.
- Teams change over a season, so in each simulated season every team's rating drifts a little each week (about a point per week). That keeps long-range odds from being overconfident.
We checked this against every season from 2012 to 2025: when we said 70%, it happened about 70% of the time, even for games two months away.
2. Play out the season
Each run simulates the rest of the regular season, applies the NFL's full tiebreaking rules to seed the playoffs, plays out the playoffs, and works out the draft order. Then it does that 20,000 times. Finished games stay finished.
A few rules we simplify: the deep tiebreakers based on points scored essentially never decide anything real, so we settle those with a coin flip. Draft order is each team's own slot; traded picks don't count.
3. Which games matter?
For every game this week we split the 20,000 seasons by who won it, and compare. If your playoff odds are 47% in the seasons where the Steelers beat the Jets and 41% when the Jets win, that game is worth +6.1% to you, and you're a Steelers fan on Sunday.
- "Doesn't matter much" means the difference is small enough to be simulation noise.
- Each game is judged on its own. Games interact (two rivals losing is better than one), but one game at a time is what you can actually cheer for.
- "If everything goes our way" re-runs the season with every game this week going your way.
- Tank mode. When the playoffs are basically gone, we switch to the draft and root for the best pick. Yes, that includes your own game. Sorry.
4. The four goals
- Make playoffs
- Finish in the top seven of your conference.
- #1 seed
- The only first-round bye.
- Win it all
- Win the Super Bowl.
- Draft pick
- Odds of the #1 pick when that's above 1%, otherwise odds of a top-five pick.
Each team's page leads with the goal that fits where it stands: the draft if the playoffs are under 1%, the playoffs while they're in doubt, the #1 seed once you're in and still have a shot at it, and the title otherwise.
5. When it updates
A full run happens every Tuesday morning, after Monday night's game. The time at the bottom of each team's page says when it last changed.